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DTSTART:19700308T020000
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DTSTART:19701101T020000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:602fd6e0-0bac-433a-b029-91da3ee2ec0b@findlocal.community
DTSTAMP:20261026T193356Z
DTSTART;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T113000
DTEND;TZID=America/Detroit:20261027T133000
SUMMARY:The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of
  Firms
DESCRIPTION:This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs
  about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. I
 n a large survey of firms\, I elicit the subjective probability of a sev
 ere macroeconomic downturn and firms’ exposure to such events. Using o
 bservational and experimental variation\, I find that a higher probabili
 ty of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment\, 
 particularly for more exposed firms\, beyond what can be explained by ch
 anges in firms’ subjective first and second moments. In a heterogeneou
 s firm model calibrated to the survey evidence\, tail risk concerns make
  fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.\n\nMor
 e info: https://events.umich.edu/event/149567\n\nhttps://findlocal.commu
 nity/event/602fd6e0-0bac-433a-b029-91da3ee2ec0b
LOCATION:The University of Michigan\, Ann Arbor\, MI
URL:https://findlocal.community/event/602fd6e0-0bac-433a-b029-91da3ee2ec0
 b
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
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